On the roof of what used to be a conference hall at a Kenyan holiday resort, a crocodile lies in the sun.
There is nothing unusual about seeing crocodiles around Lake Baringo. What is unsettling is what now lies beneath this one.
The building has been swallowed by the expanding lake.
Across this part of Kenya's Rift Valley, water has crept into places where people once built homes, sent children to school, grazed livestock and welcomed tourists. As the shoreline moves closer to human settlements, crocodiles and hippos are moving with it.
For some families, that has already turned deadly.
And with Kenya now preparing for possible heavy El Niño rains later in 2026, communities around Lake Baringo and neighboring Lake Bogoria are facing an uncomfortable question.
How much farther can the water come?
Lake Baringo has expanded dramatically since 2010
The scale of the transformation becomes clearer from above.
An AFP analysis of Copernicus Sentinel and NASA Landsat satellite imagery found that Lake Baringo's surface area increased by about 70% between 2010 and 2026, expanding from roughly 138 square kilometers to 234 square kilometers.
Lake Bogoria, its alkaline neighbor, also expanded by about 21% over the same period, from approximately 34 to 41 square kilometers.
Those figures describe more than additional water on a map.
They represent farmland, roads, tourism facilities and other pieces of the landscape that have gradually found themselves beneath the lake.
AFP journalists visiting the area in July found several holiday resorts largely submerged around Lake Baringo. The image of a crocodile resting on the roof of one drowned conference hall has become a striking symbol of how dramatically the shoreline has changed.
The lake did not simply get bigger.
It moved into people's lives.
Crocodiles are now closer to homes
Wild animals have been forced to adjust too.
As Lake Baringo expanded, some of the vegetation and grazing areas traditionally used by hippos disappeared beneath the water. At the same time, homes that once stood farther from the shoreline found themselves increasingly close to crocodile habitat.
Jackson Komen, a senior Kenya Wildlife Service official in the area, told AFP that the increase in crocodile attacks was not necessarily because there were more crocodiles.
“There has been a rise in crocodile attacks... because the lake is now close to the homes.”
Komen also linked increasing encounters with hippos to the loss of riparian grazing areas as the lake expanded.
That changing distance between wildlife and people has had devastating consequences.
Mary Milka Tiren lost her husband after a hippo attacked him in 2011 while he was returning from work at a tourist resort. A decade later, her nine-year-old son survived a crocodile attack that left him hospitalized for three months, according to AFP.
The resort where her husband once worked is now underwater.
For families like hers, a rising lake is not an environmental statistic.
It is part of the family's memory.
Children are growing up with the lake inside their school routine
Schools have also been caught in the expanding water.
Official figures cited by AFP showed that about 12 schools around Lakes Baringo and Bogoria had been partially or completely submerged.
At Kokwa Island Primary and Junior School, students and staff have had to travel across Lake Baringo by boat.
The lake has come dangerously close to the girls' dormitory, while school officials have employed guards because crocodiles and hippos can enter the grounds at night.
For children living here, the environmental changes taking place around Lake Baringo are not something they will encounter later in life.
They are already part of childhood.
Going to school can now mean crossing water that was not always there.
Why is Lake Baringo rising?
There is no responsible way to explain Lake Baringo's transformation with a single cause.
Research into Kenya's Rift Valley lakes has repeatedly pointed to changes in rainfall as an important driver, alongside land-use changes and degradation within lake catchments.
A 2024 regional study examining 375 lakes across the East African Rift found that increasing rainfall and land-use intensification were major drivers of rising lake levels in central East Africa. The researchers warned that climate change is expected to bring more extreme wet seasons as well as longer dry periods to the region.
Separate research into Kenya's Rift Valley lakes found rainfall increases of as much as 30% in some catchments during 2010 to 2020 compared with earlier periods.
Nature Africa reported in April that rainfall records from Marigat, near Lake Baringo, show average annual rainfall more than doubled after 2010 compared with previous decades. Scientists interviewed for the report identified increased rainfall, particularly its amount and intensity, as the primary driver behind the recent lake expansion.
Land degradation, agriculture, erosion and other human changes within the catchment can further complicate how water moves through the landscape.
The result is a system being altered from several directions at once.
The government is now preparing for what could come next
The latest warning arrived this month.
On August 21, Kenya's Climate Change Directorate announced that a multi-agency team had been established to address rising water levels in Lakes Baringo and Bogoria and prepare for potential impacts from the 2026 El Niño rains.
The government says approximately 8,000 households are currently affected by flooding in the area.
Officials are planning interventions involving safe water, infrastructure restoration, livelihoods, irrigation, early-warning systems and assistance for businesses hit by rising lake levels and other climate shocks.
Kenya Meteorological Department's 2025 State of the Climate report also warned that a likely El Niño toward the end of 2026 could enhance the October to December short rains in parts of Kenya, potentially increasing flood risks in vulnerable basins.
For families already watching water approach their homes, that forecast carries particular weight.
When the water reaches home
From a satellite, Lake Baringo's expansion can be measured in square kilometers.
From the ground, it looks different. It looks like a crocodile resting on the roof of a building where people once held meetings.
Lake Baringo has always shaped life around it. It has fed families, attracted travelers, supported wildlife and become part of the identity of communities along its shores.
But the relationship is changing.
And for thousands of people living beside it, the question is no longer whether the landscape they remember has changed.
It is how much more of it could disappear beneath the water.
