For something that begins on millions of Kenyan breakfast tables, milk has become surprisingly difficult to find. In Nairobi, shoppers have been moving from one supermarket to another, arriving early in the morning or accepting whatever brand remains on the shelf as fresh milk supplies tighten.
Yet Kenya is not a country without cows or milk. The dairy sector supports an estimated 1.8 million smallholder farmers and produces about 5.4 billion litres of milk annually, according to data reported by The Star.
So how can a country with that much milk still have supermarket shelves running bare?
The answer is more complicated than a shortage of cows. It begins with the weather, but it does not end there.
The empty shelf is only the last part of the story
In early October, Talecraft Hub spot check across Nairobi found empty or sparsely stocked fresh-milk shelves at several major retailers. At Carrefour in Sarit Centre, the refrigerated fresh-milk section was reportedly empty before mid-morning, while staff at Quickmart Westlands advised shoppers looking for milk to arrive as early as 6 a.m.
For some shoppers, the problem has become a daily search rather than an occasional inconvenience. One Nairobi shopper, identified as Ahma, told Talecraft Hub she had been looking for milk for two weeks and sometimes found only the more expensive brands available. “I have been looking for milk for the past two weeks,” she said.
That experience is now appearing in different parts of the country, although the severity varies by location.
The important question is what happened between the cow and the supermarket.
The milk starts disappearing on the farm
For dairy farmers, the pressure has been building well before consumers reach the shops.
Prolonged dry conditions have reduced pasture and increased dependence on commercial animal feeds, putting pressure on farmers trying to keep their cows producing. Kenya's livestock authorities have linked falling formal milk deliveries to diminishing pasture, longer distances to water and deteriorating livestock conditions.
The numbers show the pressure.
Formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July and then to 75 million litres in August, according to Kenya Dairy Board data reported by The Star. Between May and August, formal deliveries declined by 15.6 percent, or about 13.89 million litres.
That does not mean Kenya's total milk production suddenly fell by the same percentage.
It means less milk was entering the formal processing system, which is the part of the supply chain that eventually puts packaged milk into many supermarkets.
One farmer's 23 cows tell part of the story
In Kitale, farmer John Kimani has watched his own production fall as feed becomes harder and more expensive to obtain.
Kimani, who has more than two decades of dairy-farming experience, told The Star that his 23 cows were producing between 400 and 460 litres a day, down from about 700 litres previously. “The milk is decreasing because of the cost of food,” he said.
His experience illustrates how a weather problem can become an economic problem before it ever reaches a supermarket.
When pasture dries up, farmers have to spend more on fodder. If the cost of feeding a cow rises while the amount of milk it produces falls, the economics of dairy farming become increasingly difficult.
And that is where the story begins to move beyond climate.
Kenya can produce milk and still struggle to supply supermarkets
The distinction between production and formal supply is becoming increasingly important.
According to local reports, only about 30 percent of milk produced in Kenya has historically entered the formal market, leaving a large share to move through informal channels or be consumed closer to where it is produced.
That helps explain the apparent contradiction.
Kenya can have plenty of cows and substantial national milk production while processors receive less milk than they need. The supermarket shelf is therefore not a perfect reflection of how much milk exists across the country.
It is a reflection of how well the formal supply chain is functioning.
Could the rains bring the milk back?
The government has maintained that the shortage is temporary and that improved rainfall should help restore pasture and fodder availability.
That could provide relief to farmers, but rain alone cannot solve every weakness exposed by the current shortage. Kenya would still have to contend with collection systems, farmer payments, processor finances, transport, storage and the large informal market.
For farmers, the lesson may be even more immediate.
Those able to store fodder, secure reliable water and maintain production through difficult seasons may be better positioned when the next dry period arrives.
What Happens Next
The empty milk shelf tells only the final part of the story.
Behind it are cows producing less because feed has become expensive, farmers choosing between buyers, processors receiving less milk, transporters waiting for payment and consumers searching several shops for a product that once seemed almost guaranteed to be there.
Kenya still produces billions of litres of milk each year. The more difficult question is whether the country can build a dairy system capable of moving enough of that milk reliably from farms to consumers, even when weather, markets and supply chains come under pressure.
For the shopper, the problem may look simple: walk into a supermarket and find the shelf empty.
For Kenya's dairy sector, the answer is much more complicated.
And somewhere at the beginning of that story, before the truck, the processor or the supermarket, there is still a cow standing in a field, waiting for enough grass and water to produce tomorrow's milk.
